Following a situation assessment on Wednesday, the IDF announced plans to bolster defense systems and enhance preparedness in response to potential retaliation from Iran or Hezbollah in the wake of recent high-profile assassinations in Beirut and Tehran.
Despite these steps, the Home Front Command has not issued updated public guidelines or imposed restrictions, allowing normal civilian activities to continue, including at the borders, Ben Gurion Airport and central Israel.
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Top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh
(Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo)
The IDF is preparing for a range of responses from Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards following the killings of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Recent days have seen intense coordination with American counterparts and U.S.-led coalition forces in the Middle East as part of the readiness measures.
Some force relocations occurred earlier this week, but the lack of public restrictions suggests that the IDF anticipates that any targets in Israel will be primarily military. There should be enough time to advise the public to stay near shelters or avoid large gatherings if necessary.
The New York Times reported that Iran does not intend to target civilian sites, aiming instead at military objectives. Iranian officials indicated that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered a direct response to Haniyeh's assassination, but the nature of the retaliation remains undecided. Iranian military commanders are contemplating a missile and drone attack on military sites near Tel Aviv or Haifa, similar to the April strikes
The IDF acknowledges the possibility that Hezbollah and Iran may delay their retaliation to maximize operational readiness and heighten public tension in Israel. Hezbollah has previously exploited prolonged periods of high tension along the northern border to apply psychological pressure.
Such a waiting period would itself be a tactical victory for Hezbollah and Iran, mirroring the prelude to the April 14 Iranian attack, which saw Israel successfully intercept a barrage of missiles and drones in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian General Mohammed Reza Zahedi in Damascus two weeks earlier.
The Israeli media and political leadership's handling of public sentiment in the run-up to a potential escalation will also be significant. Iranian officials reportedly held their own situation assessments to plan a response to Haniyeh's assassination on Iranian soil, in place of Hamas, which has been unable to respond effectively to Israel's sustained ground operations in Gaza over the past eight months.
Iran and Hezbollah's response could involve coordinated and combined attacks, with the Revolutionary Guards promising a "special action" that may require time to plan, potentially taking weeks to execute. Their options include cyberattacks to disrupt Israeli daily life, targeting banking, transportation and critical infrastructure or simultaneous assassination attempts on Israeli officials abroad.
The response could differ from previous rounds with Hamas, focusing instead on a significant, concentrated strike on a major military target in northern Israel, such as a naval or air force base, coupled with a limited rocket barrage aimed at causing panic rather than extensive damage.
Hezbollah's recent reconnaissance of Israeli air defenses will likely inform their approach, possibly combining drone swarms and rockets targeting critical military installations, intended to both inflict damage and create a strong visual impact.